PMD also expects weather system to bring heavy rains to Pakistan’s coastal belt, including lower Sindh, Karachi
ByM Waqar Bhatti & Uneeba Zameer Shah
August 29, 2024
Introduction
Pakistan is on high alert as a severe low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea threatens to develop into a
, possibly impacting Sindh’s coastal regions within the next 24 hours. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued warnings of heavy rains and potential flooding, urging residents and authorities to brace for the storm’s possible landfall.
Cyclonic Storm “Asna” on the Horizon
PMD’s Chief Meteorologist, Sardar Sarfaraz, has indicated that if the low-pressure system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be named “Asna,” which translates to “highest” and “brighter.” The formation of a cyclonic storm during the monsoon season is an unusual phenomenon, with such occurrences being extremely rare. The last time a weather system of this magnitude targeted Sindh’s coastal belt from Central India was in 1961.
Meteorologist Anjum Nazir highlighted the rarity of such an event during the monsoon, noting that there’s only a 1-2% chance for a depression or low-pressure system to escalate into a tropical cyclone. The current deep depression is located over India’s Rann of Kutch, approximately 270 kilometers east/southeast of Karachi, and is expected to strengthen into a cyclonic storm by tonight or early tomorrow if conditions remain favorable.
Heavy Rains Expected Across Sindh
The PMD forecasts that this system will bring heavy rainfall to Pakistan’s coastal regions, particularly lower Sindh and Karachi. Fishermen in lower Sindh and Balochistan have been advised to avoid venturing into the sea until August 31 due to the risk of the impending cyclone.
The weather system is predicted to cause scattered heavy rainfall and isolated extremely heavy downpours in several districts, including Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Sajawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allah Yar, Matiari, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Jamshoro, Dadu, Shaheed Benazirabad, and Karachi. The rainfall is expected to continue until August 31, with occasional gaps.
Flooding Risks and NDMA Alerts
The heavy rains are likely to trigger urban flooding in low-lying areas of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab. There is also a significant risk of flash flooding in hill torrents in regions such as Dera Ghazi Khan, as well as in local nullahs and streams in Karachi, Hyderabad, and Dadu. The torrential rains may also cause landslides in northern areas, including Murree, Galliyat, Mansehra, Kohistan, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
In response to the looming threat, the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC) has issued alerts to all relevant departments. The NDMA anticipates heavy to very heavy rainfall, accompanied by wind and thunderstorms, across parts of Sindh, Punjab, and Balochistan over the next 24 to 72 hours.
Rainfall is expected to exceed 100mm in many parts of Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur, potentially leading to urban flooding in major urban centers. Flash flooding in local nullahs and river tributaries in Punjab and Balochistan is also a concern, along with high river flows that could exacerbate the situation.
Precautionary Measures and Public Advisory The NDMA has urged all relevant authorities to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impacts of the impending storm and heavy rains. Emergency Response Teams have been instructed to remain on high alert, with resources mobilized to ensure a swift and effective response to any emergencies that may arise.
Residents in affected areas are advised to remain vigilant and follow instructions from local authorities to ensure their safety during this potentially dangerous weather event. As the situation unfolds, staying informed through official channels is crucial for minimizing risks and ensuring timely responses to any developments.
